Acriticism of the nber's business cycle dating committee is - Bing: a criticism of the nber s


* Engel is a Research Associate in the NBER's Program on International Finance and Macroeconomics and a Professor in the Departments …

West and I (3) question the standard criterion for judging exchange rate models. Many exchange rate models can be written so that they explain the exchange rate as a weighted sum of current "fundamentals" (such as money supplies, prices, output levels) and the expected future value of the exchange rate. The models actually put relatively little weight on the current fundamentals and much more weight on expectations. The realization of the current fundamental may affect the exchange rate indirectly by influencing the expected future exchange rate. But markets use many sources of information to form expectations of the future exchange rate, not just the realizations of the current fundamentals. So, the models imply that innovations in the current fundamental may not have a large effect on the exchange rate.


Acriticism of the nber's business cycle dating committee is

Acriticism of the nber's business cycle dating committee is